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RAS PresidiumВестник Дальневосточного отделения Российской академии наук Vestnik of the Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences

  • ISSN (Print) 0869-7698
  • ISSN (Online) 3034-5308

Diffiiculties in the anthropogenic concept of global warming and the seismogenic trigger mechanism of climate change

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PII
10.31857/S0869769824040022-1
DOI
10.31857/S0869769824040022
Publication type
Article
Status
Published
Authors
L. I. Lobkovsky
  • Occupation: Academician of RAS, Doctor of Sciences in Physics and Mathematics, Professor, International Center of the Far-Eastern and Arctic Seas (named by admiral S.O. Makarov)
  • Affiliation:
    Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Scieces
    Sakhalin State University/SakhTECH
Igor P. Semiletov
  • Occupation: Corresponding Member of RAS, Doctor of Sciences in Geology and Mineralogy, Professor, International Center of the Far-Eastern and Arctic Seas (named by admiral S.O. Makarov)
  • Affiliation:
    V. I. Il’yichev Pacific Oceanological Institute, FEB RAS
    Sakhalin State University/SakhTECH
Alexey A. Baranov
  • Occupation: Candidate of Sciences in Physics and Mathematics
  • Affiliation: Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, RAS
Irina S. Vladimirova
  • Occupation: Candidate of Sciences in Physics and Mathematics
  • Affiliation: Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Scieces
Volume/ Edition
Volume / Issue number 4
Pages
44-59
Abstract
Diffiiculties in the anthropogenic concept of global warming are discussed and a seismogenic trigger mechanism for climate change is proposed.The essence of this mechanism is that methane contained in the micropores of frozen rocks in a locked state can be released as a result of the destruction of the microstructure of the environment due to additional stresses caused by the trigger effect of deformation waves passing through gas-saturated areas of sedimentary strata. The waves themselves are generated by the strongest earthquakes that occur in subduction zones. With a characteristic speed of deformation waves of the order of 100 km/year, they travel a distance of about 2000–2500 km from the Aleutian and Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zones to the Arctic zone in approximately 20–25 years. This corresponds to the time difference between a series of the most powerful earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 8.5, which occurred in these zones in the interval 1952–1965, and the beginning of a sharp climate warming in 1980. After the start of the gas filtration process as a result of the destruction of the pore microstructure and a sharp increasing the permeability of the geomedium due to the impact of a deformation wave, the process of methane emission can continue autonomously for tens and even hundreds of years, depending on the thickness of the disturbed gas-saturated layer. This explains the ongoing emission of methane on the Arctic shelf for the last forty-odd years after the strongest earthquakes of the middle of the last century that initiated it.
Keywords
cильнейшие землетрясения потепление климата Арктика газгидраты эмиссия метана триггерный механизм деформационные волны
Date of publication
15.09.2025
Year of publication
2025
Number of purchasers
0
Views
15

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